Multivariable Predictive Models of Death or Neurodevelopmental Impairment Among Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants Using Heart Rate Characteristics.

OBJECTIVE: We hypothesized that a cumulative heart rate characteristics (HRC) index in real-time throughout the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) hospitalization, alone or combined with birth demographics and clinical characteristics, can predict a composite outcome of death or neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI). STUDY DESIGN: We performed a retrospective analysis using data from extremely low birth weight infants who were monitored for HRC during neonatal intensive care. Surviving infants were assessed for NDI at 18-22 months of age. Multivariable predictive modeling of subsequent death or NDI using logistic regression, cross-validation with repeats, and step-wise feature elimination was performed each postnatal day through day 60. RESULTS: Among the 598 study participants, infants with the composite outcome of death or moderate-to-severe NDI had higher mean HRC scores during their stay in the NICU (3.1 ± 1.8 vs 1.3 ± 0.8; P < .001). Predictive models for subsequent death or NDI were consistently higher when the cumulative mean HRC score was included as a predictor variable. A parsimonious model including birth weight, sex, ventilatory status, and cumulative mean HRC score had a cross-validated receiver-operator characteristic curve as high as 0.84 on days 4, 5, 6, and 8 and as low as 0.78 on days 50-52 and 56-58 to predict subsequent death or NDI. CONCLUSIONS: In extremely low birth weight infants, higher mean HRC scores throughout their stay in the NICU were associated with a higher risk of the composite outcome of death or NDI. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00307333.

Preterm birth, stillbirth and early neonatal mortality during the Danish COVID-19 lockdown.

Using provisional or opportunistic data, three nationwide studies (The Netherlands, the USA and Denmark) have identified a reduction in preterm or extremely preterm births during periods of COVID-19 restrictions. However, none of the studies accounted for perinatal deaths. To determine whether the reduction in extremely preterm births, observed in Denmark during the COVID-19 lockdown, could be the result of an increase in perinatal deaths and to assess the impact of extended COVID-19 restrictions, we performed a nationwide Danish register-based prevalence proportion study. We examined all singleton pregnancies delivered in Denmark during the COVID-19 strict lockdown calendar periods (March 12-April 14, 2015-2020, N = 31,164 births) and the extended calendar periods of COVID-19 restrictions (February 27-September 30, 2015-2020, N = 214,862 births). The extremely preterm birth rate was reduced (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.07 to 0.86) during the strict lockdown period in 2020, while perinatal mortality was not significantly different. During the extended period of restrictions in 2020, the extremely preterm birth rate was marginally reduced, and a significant reduction in the stillbirth rate (OR 0.69, 0.50 to 0.95) was observed. No changes in early neonatal mortality rates were found.Conclusion: Stillbirth and extremely preterm birth rates were reduced in Denmark during the period of COVID-19 restrictions and lockdown, respectively, suggesting that aspects of these containment and control measures confer an element of protection. The present observational study does not allow for causal inference; however, the results support the design of studies to ascertain whether behavioural or social changes for pregnant women may improve pregnancy outcomes. What is Known: • The aetiologies of preterm birth and stillbirth are multifaceted and linked to a wide range of socio-demographic, medical, obstetric, foetal, psychosocial and environmental factors. • The COVID-19 lockdown saw a reduction in extremely preterm births in Denmark and other high-income countries. An urgent question is whether this reduction can be explained by increased perinatal mortality. What is New: • The reduction in extremely preterm births during the Danish COVID-19 lockdown was not a consequence of increased perinatal mortality, which remained unchanged during this period. • The stillbirth rate was reduced throughout the extended period of COVID-19 restrictions.